Modeling and Predicting Popularity Dynamics of Microblogs using Self-Excited Hawkes Processes
نویسندگان
چکیده
The ability to model and predict the popularity dynamics of individual user generated items on online media has important implications in a wide range of areas. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model using a Self-Excited Hawkes Process (SEHP) to characterize the process through which individual microblogs gain their popularity. This model explicitly captures the triggering effect of each forwarding, distinguishing itself from the reinforced Poisson process based model where all previous forwardings are simply aggregated as a single triggering effect. We validate the proposed model by applying it on Sina Weibo, the most popular microblogging network in China. Experimental results demonstrate that the SEHP model consistently outperforms the model based on reinforced Poisson process.
منابع مشابه
A Tutorial on Hawkes Processes for Events in Social Media
This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point processes. We then introduce the Hawkes process, its event intensity function, as well as schemes for event simulation and parameter estimation. We also descr...
متن کاملModeling and Predicting Retweeting Dynamics via a Mixture Process
Modeling and predicting retweeting dynamics in social media has important implications to an array of applications. Existing models either fail to model the triggering effect of retweeting dynamics, e.g., the model based on reinforced Poisson process, or are hard to be trained using only the retweeting dynamics of individual tweet, e.g., the model based on self-exciting Hawkes process. In this ...
متن کاملViral Potential and the Economics of Attention for Modeling Online Popularity under Promotion
Modeling the popularity dynamics of an online item is an important open problem in computational social science. This paper presents an in-depth study of popularity dynamics under external promotions, especially in predicting popularity jumps of online videos, and determining effective and efficient schedules to promote online content. The recently proposed Hawkes Intensity Process (HIP) models...
متن کاملPredicting Popularity of Microblogs in Emerging Disease Event
During emerging disease outbreaks, massive information are disseminated through social network. In China, Sina microblog system as the biggest social network provide a novel way to monitoring the development of emerging disease and public awareness. However, only a small percentage of microblogs could wide spread. Therefore, predict popularity of microblogs timely are meaningful for emergency m...
متن کاملSimulation , Estimation and Applications of Hawkes Processes
Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic processes that were introduced in the early seventies by A. G. Hawkes, notably to model the occurrence of seismic events. Since then they have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modeling to financial analysis. The processes themselves are characterized by a stochastic intensity vector, which represents the condition...
متن کامل